This Week JCI will be Influenced by The Following Sentiments

Jakarta – The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) recorded a weakening of 0.79 percent in trading last week, which only lasted for two days on January 30-31, 2025. This weakening was accompanied by outflows in the regular market of Rp521.4 billion.

Regarding potential market movements this week, February 3-7, 2025, Equity Analyst Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), Imam Gunadi, predicts that the JCI will move positively, driven by eight main sentiments.

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The first sentiment comes from within the country, namely the release of Indonesia’s inflation data by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Indonesia’s annual inflation in January 2025 is estimated to increase to 1.88 percent from 1.57 percent in December 2024.

“With the current amount of annual inflation data close to the lower limit at 1.5 percent, the market will expect inflation to be in line with expectations or higher, which illustrates the rise in purchasing power,” Imam said in his research in Jakarta, Monday, February 3, 2025.

Foreign Tourist Visits and Their Impact on the Economy

This week, BPS will also release data on foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia. This data is an important indicator for the recovery of the tourism sector and the national economy, given that the hospitality, transportation, culinary and retail sectors are highly dependent on foreign tourist spending.

US Manufacturing Data and Its Impact on Global Markets

On February 3, 2025, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for January 2025 at 22:00 WIB. Market consensus expects the PMI figure to be at 49.5, slightly higher than 49.3 in December 2024.

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With PMI numbers still below 50, the US manufacturing sector is expected to continue contracting. This data is important for monitoring the health of the manufacturing industry and can influence monetary policy and investment decisions in global markets.

OPEC+ Meeting and Oil Production Policy

Alongside the ISM data release, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is scheduled to hold a meeting to discuss oil production policy. Currently, OPEC+ has capped oil production at 5.86 million barrels per day since 2022 to maintain global oil market stability.

Release of Indonesia’s GDP Data for Q4-2024

On the other hand, this week, Indonesia is also scheduled to release Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2024. The Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, projects economic growth in the quarter to reach 5.01 percent on an annual basis (year-on-year).

Read also: Sri Mulyani Projects Indonesia's Economy to Stagnate at 5 Percent in 2024

Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates that Indonesia’s economic growth in 2024 will be in the range of 4.7-5.5 percent, with a median of 5.1 percent. Meanwhile, the market consensus is more conservative with a projection of 4.96 percent.

Indonesia’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Stable

Bank Indonesia is also scheduled to release data on Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves for January 2025 on February 7, 2025. The latest data shows that Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to cover the needs of 6.7 months of imports or 6.5 months of imports and foreign debt payments, well above the international adequacy standard of around 3 months.

US Labor Data and Its Impact on the Market

On the other hand, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment rate data for January 2025 will be released on February 7, 2025. NFP is projected to flatten to 170k from 256k in December 2024, while the US unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1 percent.

China’s Inflation and Its Impact on Indonesia’s Exports

Another external sentiment comes from China, which is scheduled to release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January 2025 on February 9, 2025 at 01:30 GMT (08:30 WIB). If inflation in China increases, this may affect the purchasing power of the Chinese people, which in turn has an impact on demand for Indonesian export goods, such as commodities and manufactured products. (*)

Editor: Yulian Saputra