Rupiah Predicted to Weaken Due to Arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro

Key Points

• The rupiah strengthened slightly at the start of trading on Monday (1/5/2026), opening at Rp16,722 per US dollar, up 0.02 percent from the previous close.
• Geopolitical sentiment weighed on risky assets following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which could potentially push the rupiah lower.
• The Fed’s policy direction and the surge in gold prices are the focus of the market, with expectations of interest rate cuts in 2026.

Jakarta – The rupiah exchange rate strengthened at the start of trading today, Monday (5/1/2026). The rupiah opened at Rp16,722 per US dollar, a slight increase of 0.02 percent compared to last Friday’s closing at Rp16,725 per US dollar.

Doo Financial Futures currency analyst Lukman Leong said the rupiah is expected to weaken against the US dollar after the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which has triggered geopolitical concerns.

“The arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has triggered geopolitical concerns that are weighing on investor interest in risky assets, including emerging market currencies,” Lukman said on Monday, January 5, 2026.

Lukman predicted that the rupiah would move in the range of Rp16,650 to Rp16,800 per US dollar today.

“The rupiah is expected to be in the range of Rp16,650 to Rp16,800 per US dollar today,” said Lukman.

Meanwhile, Bank Mandiri Chief Economist Andry Asmoro explained that gold and silver prices will rise as investors seek the safety of precious metals amid heightened geopolitical risks following the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro by the US.

“Spot gold prices rose 0.9 percent in early trading on Monday, rising above USD 4,370 per ounce,” Andry explained.

On the other hand, investors continue to consider the direction of the Federal Reserve (the Fed) interest rates this year, focusing on upcoming economic data releases, including December payroll data to be released next week, which could provide insight into the labor market and its implications for interest rates.

“The minutes from the December 2025 FOMC meeting show increasing openness among policymakers to ease monetary policy if inflation continues to ease,” he said.

Andry added that market participants are expecting two interest rate cuts, compared to the Fed’s projection of only one in 2026. The market is also watching the Fed’s next leadership, with President Trump set to appoint Powell’s replacement early this year.

“Our view is that the rupiah will move around Rp16,700 and Rp16,820 per US dollar today,” Andry concluded. (*)

Editor: Galih Pratama