By Eko B. Supriyanto, Editor-in-Chief of Infobank Media Group
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stood tall at the Presidential Palace last week. With the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of 53.8 in hand, Purbaya vehemently denied that Indonesia’s economy was heading toward a recession. “Those economists are a bit odd,” he said, dismissing those who see purchasing power eroding as spouting nonsense. Car sales rose 12.2 percent, retail grew 6.9 percent, and consumer confidence stood at 125.2. All indicators, he said, point to acceleration.
The data isn’t wrong. But something makes one want to dig deeper into the manufacturing PMI data.
Many economists contacted also wanted to ask cautiously: Mr. Finance Minister, are you certain these numbers are honestly reflecting reality?
Let’s examine this so-called PMI “theater.” In April 2024, Indonesia’s manufacturing PMI plummeted from 52.9 to 48.9. Then, it rose again ahead of Christmas and New Year’s, reaching 51.2 in December 2024. January 2025 remained expansionary at 51.9, February surged to 53.6, and March held steady. Once Eid al-Fitr ended, April 2025 plummeted to 46.7—a record low. Then, the cycle repeated: November 2025 rose, December expanded, January 2026 hit 52.6, and February broke the record at 53.8.
The pattern is as clear as a monotonous “dangdut” song. The PMI rises ahead of Christmas, New Year’s, and Eid al-Fitr. It drops sharply once the holidays are over. This is not structural expansion. That much is clear. It’s a seasonal circus. Factories produce instant noodles, syrup, cookies, and new clothes because people need souvenirs and treats. It’s not because factories are installing new machinery, hiring permanent workers, or exporting to global markets. Once Eid is over, orders dry up. The public’s real purchasing power—especially that of the squeezed middle class—isn’t strong enough to keep production running for 12 months.
And look at what happened after Eid in 2024 and 2025? The PMI plummeted into contraction. The same will happen in April 2026. Economists can bet: after this year’s Eid, the PMI will once again plummet below 50. Not because the economy suddenly fell ill, but because the economy only comes alive during holidays. Otherwise, it’s sluggish. Just “Rojali” and “Rohana”—the “Rarely Buy” crowd and the “Just Asking Around” crowd.
The question is, who benefits from this circus?
First, of course, the government. High PMI data ahead of cabinet meetings, plenary sessions, or the release of the state budget can be marketed as “development successes.” Especially since 2025–2026 is a covert political year leading up to 2029. The finance minister can appear confident, refuting all criticism with raw data whose seasonal context is never explained.
Two, large corporations—especially FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods), modern retail, and food producers—reap huge profits during the holiday season. First and fourth-quarter financial reports always look stellar. Their stock prices rise, and dividends flow. But behind the scenes, labor-intensive industries like textiles, footwear, and electronics are collapsing as the purchasing power of the middle class—their primary market—continues to erode.
Third, the media and “economic influencers” who shout optimism without critical reasoning. They take the PMI data at face value, crafting headlines like “Manufacturing Grows Stronger,” even as factory workers in Bekasi and Tangerang are being laid off due to a slump in orders after Eid.
Meanwhile, those most harmed by this seasonal PMI circus are workers, contract employees, and the lower middle class. They only get temporary work leading up to Eid. Overtime pay flows in briefly, but after that, working hours are cut, and many even face layoffs. Labor-intensive industries, collapsing due to weakened purchasing power and soaring production costs—driven by energy tariffs, taxes, and rupiah fluctuations—cannot be saved by the Christmas and Eid celebrations.
The government is busy distributing fiscal incentives to corporations, offering a 50 percent discount on electricity, and cutting ministry spending under the guise of efficiency. Yet these cuts in government spending are actually exacerbating the decline in demand. Small infrastructure projects and spending on goods and services—which typically drive the local economy—are also being cut. So, at a time when the real sector needs a boost, the government is pulling back.
